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Advanced Course on Applied Paleoclimate Time Series Analysis

Heckenbeck, Germany, 9 to 13 February 2015

The course is tailored to the needs of students and researchers in paleoclimatology. It deals with climate archives, proxy variables and dating. It shows you the statistical algorithms to optimally answer your questions about the paleoclimate.

You learn how the various uncertainty sources (proxy and dating) propagate into the uncertainty of the statistical estimation result. You become aware of the three major pitfalls in climate data analysis: ignored autocorrelation, violated Gaussian assumption and ignored multiplicity of hypothesis tests.

Paleoclimate application examples include:

  • Northern Hemisphere Glaciation in the Pliocene (archive: marine sediment cores)
  • Temperature and ice-volume changes during the late Pleistocene (ice cores)
  • Monsoon proxy records and solar forcing in the Holocene (speleothem archive)
  • Paleohurricane risk from proxy series during the past millennium (lake sediment cores)
  • River floods during the past millennium (documentary sources)
  • Runoff break points for the instrumental period (climate model output)
  • Calibration of climate proxy variables

The course consists of lectures and extensive hands-on training in computer tutorials. Data, software, the lecture as PDF and a softcopy of the textbook (Mudelsee, 2014, Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp) is included in the fee.

Accomodation, dinner, lunch, breakfast, snacks, coffee and tea as well as a shuttle service are also covered by the registration fee. In addition to paying the fee, you just have to arrange your travel!

Participants of past courses have praised the intellectual atmosphere, the family-like setting and nice rural landscape here at Heckenbeck.

Participants are encouraged to bring their own data for discussion and analysis during the course. The number of participants is limited to six (first come, first serve) to allow in-depth consultation with the course holder and textbook author, Manfred Mudelsee.

Registration

  • Email to course@climate-risk-analysis.com
  • Deadline for early-bird registration: 31 December 2014
  • 6 participants maximum; first come, first serve
  • Deadline for late registration: 6 February 2015
  • Give your name, research field, affiliation, laptop operating system, address, country, mobile phone; optional: second email address, fax
  • Give name of paying institution together with its address and, if applicable, VAT ID number
  • Your first email address appears on messages sent to all participants, other details confidential
  • Contact us if in need of more information (visa, invitation letter, invoice, VAT, etc.)

Included in registration fee

  • Textbook (Mudelsee 2014 Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp.; 1 softcopy)
  • Lecture (PDF; USB stick)
  • Data and software (Windows: executables and source codes, Linux and Mac: Fortran source codes; USB stick)
  • One month post-course support on software
  • Accomodation, dinner, lunch, breakfast for five nights (Sunday, 8 February, to Friday, 13 February 2015)
  • Lunch, snacks, coffee and tea
  • Shuttle service

Registration fee (net price, excluding 19% VAT)

  • Registration fee, early-bird: 1650 EUR
  • Registration fee, late: 1950 EUR
  • Deadline for course cancellation at a rate of 50% repayment, see Milestone #6; later cancellation means 0% repayment

Organizer

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany
  • Contact person: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, phone +49 5563 999246

Bank account

  • Account holder: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee
  • Bank name: Commerzbank Baden-Baden
  • Bank address: Lichtentaler Strasse 27, 76530 Baden-Baden, Germany
  • Sort code: 662 400 02
  • Account number: 350 102 000
  • IBAN: DE83 6624 0002 0350 1020 00
  • BIC: COBADEFFXXX

Course, skills

  • Language: English
  • Level: academic (PhD students and postdocs), industry (researchers and analysts)
  • Audience: Focus is on Paleoclimatologists, also welcome are Climatologists, Geographers, Geologists, Hydrologists, Meteorologists, Physicists
  • Basic knowledge in statistics is assumed (e.g., you should know what "standard deviation" means)
  • Laptop: essential for doing the tutorial, bring your own; Windows system would be preferable but is not mandatory, Linux or Mac also work
  • Data: you are very welcome to bring your own data for analysis!
  • Link: courses, general

Course, time schedule

       
  Arrival and dinner Sun 8 February afternoon
0.  Preliminary (badge, book, certificate, invoice, stick) Mon 20 October 9.00
    Lecture Tutorial
1. Introduction Mon 10–11 Mon 11–12
2. Persistence Models Mon 14–15 Mon 15–16
3. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Mon 16–17  
4. Regression I Tue 9–10 Tue 10–12
5. Spectral Analysis Tue 14–15 Tue 15–17
6. Extreme Value Time Series Wed 9–10 Wed 10–12
7. Correlation Wed 14–15 Wed 15–17
8. Regression II Thur 9–10 Thur 10–11
9. Future Directions/Individual Discussions Thur 11–12  
10. Open Session (re-cap, applications, in-depth analyses, etc.)

Thur 14–17, Fri 9–12

Venue

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Course/Office Building, Methfesselstrasse 2, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany
  • Contact phone: +49 5563 999246
  • Barrier-free
  • Intellectually stimulating atmosphere, family-like setting, nice rural landscape

Accomodation

  • Will be arranged by CRA
  • Walking distance to venue
  • Quiet, single rooms (double available on request)

Travel

  • Hannover airport: HAJ, take S-Bahn to Hannover central railway station
  • Hannover central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~45 min)
  • Göttingen central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~20 min)
  • External Link: Deutsche Bahn railway
  • Kreiensen: call CRA at +49 5563 999246 to get picked up!

Milestones

     
#1 Deadline for early-bird registration (first come, first serve) 31 Dec 2014 Wed
#2 Deadline for course cancellation at a rate of 50% repayment 23 Jan 2015 Fri
#3 Confirmation email: registration, payment, details, welcome 23 Jan 2015 Fri
#4 Deadline for late registration 6 Feb 2015 Fri
#5 Lecture (PDF) sent by email 6 Feb 2015 Fri
#6 Arrival, accomodation and dinner 8 Feb 2015 Sun
#7  Start of course 9 Feb 2015 Mon
#8 End of course 13 Feb 2015 Fri
#9 End of 1-month post-course support (software, statistical advice) 15 Mar 2015 Sun

Welcome to Heckenbeck!