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Intense Weekend Course in Climate Extremes Analysis, Bad Gandersheim, Germany, 30 October to 1 November 2015

Hands-on computer tutorials on real-world climate data, such as floods or hurricanes. Theoretical background of statistical extremes analysis. Focus on non-stationarity to take into account climate change.

Registration fee 1810 EUR (net price). Covers software, including a full version of the Caliza™ package (list price net 850 EUR); a hardcopy of the textbook (net ~150 EUR); accomodation and all meals for three days; and a shuttle service to/from the local railway station, Kreiensen.

  • Audience: Actuaries, Climatologists, Geographers, Geologists, Hydrologists, Meteorologists, Physicists, Risk analysts
  • Level: academic (advanced students, PhD students and postdocs), industry (researchers and analysts), basic knowledge in statistics assumed
  • Language: English
  • Registration deadline: 29 October 2015 (on site)
  • Maximum 8 participants (first come, first serve)
  • Laptop: essential for doing the tutorials, bring your own, which should ideally have a Windows operating system (or emulate it)
  • Data: instrumental period, past millennium, Holocene, climate model output. You are very welcome to bring your own data for analysis!

Registration

  • Email to xcourse@climate-risk-analysis.com
  • Give name, research field, affiliation, address, country, mobile phone; optional: second email address, fax
  • Give a short summary of your research (e.g., from your grant proposal, or a recent paper), so that we can better prepare for your participation
  • Let us know in case you have further requests (invitation letter, visa reference letter, dietary preferences, etc.)
  • If your paying institution qualifies for the reverse-charge mechanism regarding VAT, then please state this and provide details (invoice address, VAT ID number)
  • You will receive an email with a request of payment of the registration fee (on-site payment possible)

Registration fee

  • Net price: 1810 EUR
  • VAT percentage: 19%
  • Account holder: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee
  • Bank name: Commerzbank Baden-Baden
  • Bank address: Lichtentaler Strasse 27, 76530 Baden-Baden, Germany
  • Sort code: 662 400 02
  • Account number: 350 102 000
  • IBAN: DE83 6624 0002 0350 1020 00
  • BIC: COBADEFFXXX
  • Reference: 'xcourse' and surname of participant

Included in registration fee

  • Textbook (Mudelsee 2014 Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp., 1 hardcopy)
  • Lecture (PDF; USB stick)
  • Data and software (selected Fortran source codes; USB stick)
  • Caliza™ software, full version (Windows executable), including manual
  • One year post-course software support
  • Breakfast, lunch, dinner, coffee, tea, juice, fruits and snacks
  • Shuttle service (Kreiensen railway station)
  • Accomodation (single room, quiet, walking-distance)

Organizer

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany
  • Contact person: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, phone +49 5563 9998140, email mudelsee@climate-risk-analysis.com

Course, time schedule

   

29 Oct, Thur

afternoon

 

Arrival, accomodation

19.00 Dinner

30 Oct, Fri

08.15–09.00

 

Breakfast and preliminary

(badge, book, certificate, invoice, LAN cable, USB stick)

09.00–09.45

Introduction

(climate, time series)

10.00–10.45

Persistence models

(climate, mathematical formulas)

11.00–11.45

Bootstrap confidence intervals

(statistical background)

12.00–12.45

Regression I

(trends and detection of extremes)

13.00–15.00

Lunch break

15.00–18.00

Computer tutorial

(histograms, smoothing, regression, detection of extremes)

19.00 Dinner

31 Oct Sat

08.15–09.00

 

Breakfast

09.00–09.45

 Re-cap

(climate, time series, persistence, regression,

detection of extremes)

10.00–10.45

Extreme value time series

(data types, stationary models)

11.00–11.45

Extreme value time series

(nonstationary models, estimation)

12.00–12.45

Extreme value time series

(nonstationary models, hypothesis tests)

13.00–14.30

Lunch break

15.00–18.00

Computer tutorial

(detection of extremes,

nonstationary model estimation,

hypothesis testing, examples: floods, participants' data

19.00 Dinner

1 Nov Sun

09.15–10.00

 

Breakfast

10.00–12.45

Open questions, re-cap on demand,

computer tutorial

(detection of extremes,

nonstationary model estimation,

hypothesis testing, sensitivity analyses,

examples: floods, hurricanes, participants' data)

13.00

Lunch and farewell

Venue

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Course/Office Building, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany
  • Contact phone: +49 5563 999246 and +49 5563 9998140
  • New, modern bungalow
  • Barrier-free
  • Picturesque town Bad Gandersheim, nice rural landscape with high ecological awareness in Heckenbeck, intellectually stimulating atmosphere and family-like setting at CRA

Travel

  • Hannover airport: HAJ, take S-Bahn to Hannover central railway station
  • Hannover central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~45 min)
  • Göttingen central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~20 min)
  • External Link: Deutsche Bahn railway
  • Kreiensen: call CRA at +49 5563 999246 or +49 5563 9998140 to get picked up!

Welcome to Bad Gandersheim!