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53rd Online Course in Climate Time Series Analysis

23 to 27 June 2025

This Online Course in Climate Time Series Analysis is specifically tailored to the needs of PhD students and postdocs, who want to learn about an important combination of disciplines (climate change and time series analysis), but who have not had much exposure to in-depth statistical teaching. It will also attract professional researchers who wish to update their knowledge or learn new statistical techniques. We expect participants to come from a background in climatology, ecology, econometrics, environmental sciences, geosciences, hydrology, meteorology, chemistry, physics or other sustainability sciences.

We aim to be accessible to students at the beginning of their careers. We achieve this through an intensive online, chat-supported format combined with a repetitive, caring approach.

What makes it different from other online courses? First, the course provides videos that have been carefully designed, recorded and edited. You can watch the videos over and over again, pausing as necessary. You receive the course slides and can study them again. Second, daily chat sessions on a video platform throughout the course allow you to prepare questions in advance and get comprehensive answers. Third, proprietary software designed specifically to get the most out of "dirty" climate time series data will add to your arsenal of analytical tools. Fourth, the individual feedback period of three months after the course (via email and possibly an online meeting) preserves the interactive mode of shared data analysis, allowing you to go deeper into real applications — perhaps on your own data!

We just assume that do not run away when you see a mathematical formula: all the basics, and the advanced methods as well, you will learn here. You get the required statistical tools and extensive hands-on training to become able to optimally analyse your data and answer the associated questions about the climate. You acquire the theoretical basis for understanding the tools and interpreting the results. You learn to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in data, climate models and statistical estimation.

Climate case studies serve to illustrate the usefulness of the tools: how to make the most of your data by means of statistics — and how to publish it in a thesis or a research paper. Examples include:

The course instructor, Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, trained in physics, geology and statistics, has a long-standing expertise in teaching statistical methods to non-specialists.

What you get. The course consists of lectures and extensive hands-on training in computer tutorials. Access to the course videos is provided through a streaming host. Data, software, the lecture as PDF, additional reading material (articles as PDF), the statistical tools and (optionally) an e-book version of the textbook (Mudelsee, 2014, Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp) are included in the fee. You will receive the link to the course slides more than ten days before the start of the course so that you can prepare as well as possible. During the course days, you can participate daily in online chats on the material delivered on that day. After the course, you will be offered a three-month individual feedback period where you will have the opportunity to show (more) of your own data, tell me about your questions, get software support and general statistical advice. We communicate by email during this period and, if needed, via one-to-one online meetings.

Participants are strongly encouraged to bring their own data for discussion and analysis during the course. The number of participants is limited to ten to allow in-depth individual consultation with the course holder and textbook author, Manfred Mudelsee.

You want to have a free look? Please try Module 01 Introduction (Lecture), which is in the public domain.

Past participants: country list

Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Nepal, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay

Past participants: references

In January 2025, I participated in the Climate Time Series Analysis course. It was a unique opportunity to explore statistical methods used for analyzing paleoclimate data. One of the advantages of this course is that you can participate remotely and still be in constant contact with the lecturer, Manfred Mudelsee. Complex topics are presented not only in an accessible way but also in a highly aesthetic format. Everything is refined down to the smallest detail. Regular meetings with the instructor allow for immediate clarification of doubts and questions. Another invaluable aspect is the ability to revisit the content whenever a deeper review is needed. The weekly structure of the course encourages commitmentif you're going to do this course, it's worth setting aside the time to concentrate on it.
Karolina Leszczynska
Geohazards Research Unit, Institute of Geology, Adam Mickiewicz University
Poznań, Poland


This exciting online course provides deep insight into theoretical concepts which were familiar but never really understood. Overall, the course is well constructed and the material of high quality. I could largely follow the explanation but the density of the given material will require revising more than once the different concepts before allowing a full application to my own data. Therefore, the video format is of clear advantage as it allows coming back at your ease to the theoretical part. The chats provide also good opportunities to discuss the theoretical concepts and results from the exercises.
Marc Luetscher
Swiss Institute of Speleology and Karstology
La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland


This online course was just the one I had expectations for. All of the statistical theory for climate change I had known before by self-learning was just separate tools, which I did not know how to put in order to work properly for the estimation of time series. Due to the well-organized structure of the course, I could understand properly separate elements and then make a holistic understanding of the climate process by statistical means. I think the course fits well both newcomers and experienced researchers in the field. The first ones can get the strategy for successful research and the others can dive deeper into the advanced tools as well as discuss innovations in the field.
Dariia Kholiavchuk
Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Ukraine


As a researcher at the beginning of his career, it was extraordinary to see such an established scholar speaking the language of the young. His short course I attended was practice oriented, and all of his explanations straightforward. Since the students were not only allowed but encouraged to bring their own problems/data, this was truly a lesson for all of us. We could not ask a question he could not have answered in a more professional and comprehensive manner. All-in-all, it was one of the most useful courses in time series analysis I had.
István Gábor Hatvani
Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd Research Network and Center of Environmental Studies, Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary


I very much enjoyed the course, both the content and the format. It is a very intense course, with a lot of relevant information. I found the tutorials very helpful. I want to thank you for being such a good host, for taking the time to patiently explain even basic stuff, for providing a friendly and open atmosphere and, of course, for all the delicious food, snacks and drinks.
Alexandra Engstrom-Johansson
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Mainz, Germany



The course is very helpful and gives great insight into statistical methods important in paleoclimate research. I've already used some of the software to analyse my data and it has proven to be extremely useful.
Henrieka Detlef
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Cardiff University, UK


As a paleoclimate researcher, I know that it is always necessary to connect my own sets of data with time. All of these datasets will only have meaningful interpretations when linked to records associated with time-dependent series and processes. I have this thinking when I started looking for a course that can help me with my data analysis. The climate time series course analysis offered by Manfred Mudelsee is just the perfect course to take for this purpose. I also like it that the last sessions were allotted for presenting our own data in class, get some feedbacks, and analysing them on the spot with our own software choice.
Deborah Tangunan
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

For me the course was very useful. It has broadened my knowledge in the statistical methods that I used so far, and opened new avenues for my future research. Dr. Mudelsee nicely points to the important questions and to the ways of inference from statistical methods in practical problems. Additionally, it is worth to mention delicious organic homemade meals in Heckenbeck!
Ksenija Cindric Kalin
Meteorological and Hydrological Service
Zagreb, Croatia

I therefore think that attending such a course is of high interest to paleoclimate researchers, especially those who are looking for climate mechanisms, feedbacks and lead and lags of different climatic components. However, I would advise to have beforehand all the statistical and mathematical concepts readily 'charged' and fresh in your brain. Therefore one doesn't loose too much time trying to remember what's variance, how is the Pearson's coefficient calculated, what t-Student stands for or even what characterizes a Gaussian curve. Finally, it was a privilege to work and receive advice from Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, to focus on my and participate on other colleagues problem solving and always in a very comfortable, familiar and cozy environment.
Catarina Dinis Cavaleiro
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

Registration

  • Ten participants maximum: first come, first serve
  • Registration, start: 16 April 2025
  • Registration, deadline: 11 June 2025
  • Information requested: name, email, academic title(s), affiliation(s) and professional status(es), research field(s) and computer operating system(s); please also indicate whether you wish own data to be analysed during the course or during the post-course feedback period; finally, please attach a short CV including list of recent papers, abstracts and links since this helps to better prepare for your needs — please put all this into the registration form (PDF)
  • Send the information (i.e., the completed registration form) by email to the course email address 53rd-onlinecourse@climate-risk-analysis.com
  • Once we have received your registration email, you will be sent an official payment request electronically, which you are kindly requested to have paid by your institution; this payment completes your registration. Once payment has been received, the invoice for the course will be sent electronically to the paying institution and you. The aim is for payment to be made before the course starts.
  • Participants who have successfully completed registration and payment will receive a welcome email with course details and advice on home preparation, information on data types, file formats for own data, software, information for Windows, Mac and other non-Windows computers.

Included in course fee

  • Course lecture and tutorial as module videos (about 16 hours in total, streamed, protected online access):

    • Day 1 (chat: Monday, 23 June 2025): Module 01 Introduction (Lecture)
    • Day 1 (Monday, 23 June 2025): Module 02 Introduction (Tutorial)
    • Day 1 (Monday, 23 June 2025): Module 03 Persistence Models (Lecture)
    • Day 1 (Monday, 23 June 2025): Module 04 Persistence Models (Tutorial)
    • Day 2 (Tuesday, 24 June 2025): Module 05 Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (Lecture)
    • Day 2 (Tuesday, 24 June 2025): Module 06 Regression I (Lecture)
    • Day 2 (Tuesday, 24 June 2025): Module 07 Regression I (Tutorial)
    • Day 3 (Wednesday, 25 June 2025): Module 08 Spectral Analysis (Lecture)
    • Day 3 (Wednesday, 25 June 2025): Module 09 Spectral Analysis (Tutorial)
    • Day 3 (Wednessday, 25 June 2025): Module 10 Extreme Value Time Series (Lecture)
    • Day 3 (Wednessday, 25 June 2025): Module 11 Extreme Value Time Series (Tutorial)
    • Day 4 (Thursday, 26 June 2025): Module 12 Correlation (Lecture)
    • Day 4 (Thursday, 26 June 2025): Module 13 Correlation (Tutorial)
    • Day 4 (Thursday, 26 June 2025): Module 14 Regression II (Lecture)
    • Day 4 (Thursday, 26 June 2025): Module 15 Regression II (Tutorial)
    • Day 5 (Friday, 27 June 2025): Module 16 Future Directions (Lecture)
    • Day 5 (Friday, 27 June 2025): Open Session: Re-cap, Questions and Answers, Joint Data Analyses, Individual Presentations, Outlook

  • Daily chat during course days on modules from that day (or open session). The starting time of the chat (which typically lasts up to one hour) will be decided among us — your comments in the registration form are highly appreciated!
  • Course slides (408 pages, PDF, downloadable, protected online access)
  • Data, software (Windows executables and selected Fortran source codes) and reading material (downloadable, protected online access)
  • Caliza™ 3.0 software, full version is included in software
  • Three months individual post-course feedback period, software support and general statistical advice
  • Optional: Textbook Mudelsee 2014 Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp. (e-book version)

Course fee (net price, excluding 19% VAT)

  • Without e-book: 1000 EUR
  • With e-book: 1100 EUR

Organizer

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany (CRA)
  • Contact person: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, phone +49 5563 9998140

Technicalities

  • Language: English (during the individual post-course feedback period, German is also possible)
  • Computer: essential for doing the tutorial, please note that you should have administrator rights to be able to install software
  • Computer operating system: Windows preferable but not mandatory, Linux also works
  • Mac users: prior to the start of the course, install a Windows emulator (see, e.g., Oracle VM, https://www.oracle.com/virtualization/technologies/vm; Wine, https://www.winehq.org; or Homebrew, http://brew.sh; if uncertain, please do consult someone from the computing department of your institution)
  • Computing environment: the course accomodates virtually all you bring (Matlab, Python, R, S-Plus, etc.)
  • Data: you are very welcome to bring your own data for analysis! Data format: ASCII (more details in our confirmation email)
  • Reading material: a few topical papers are provided

Certificate

  • Detailed list of taught topics
  • Electronically signed and sent by email to you
  • Provided at the end of the course

Flyer

  • For distribution at your institution (thank you!)
  • high-resolution DIN A4 PDF
  • Flyer

Invoice

  • Electronically signed and sent by email after payment

Milestones

     
#1 Registration, start Wed 16 April 2025
#2 Registration, deadline Wed 11 June 2025
#3 Course material put online and made available to participants Thur 12 June 2025
#4 Start of course (daily chats) Mon 23 June 2025
#5 End of course Fri 27 June 2025
#6 Course certificate email Mon 30 June 2025
#7 End of three-month individual post-course feedback period Mon 29 September 2025

A very warm welcome!