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35th Online Course in Climate Time Series Analysis

13 to 23 September 2021

This Online Course in Climate Time Series Analysis is specifically tailored to the needs of PhD students and postdocs, who wish to learn about an important combination of disciplines (climate change and time series analysis), but have had so far not much exposure to in-depth statistical teaching. It will also attract professional researchers, who wish to update their knowledge or to learn new statistical techniques. We assume that participants come from somewhere in the range of climatology, ecology, econometrics, environmental sciences, geosciences, hydrology, meteorology, or physics.

This online format has emerged in response partly to the Covid-19 situation (which started in 2020), but also to the general upward trend in need of electronic high-level quality education.

What distinguishes this from other online courses? First, the course provides videos that have been designed, recorded and edited with care. You can go repeatedly through the videos and make breaks as you need. You also receive and can study again the delivered course slides. Second, a daily chat meeting via a video platform over the full course duration allows you to prepare questions beforehand and get extensive response. Third, the individual feedback period of two months post-course (via email and, possibly, online meeting) preserves the interactive mode of joint data analysis, it allows to go in depth through real applications (perhaps on your own data), and it should keep the "open session" discursive atmosphere, which has been praised by the many offline participants I had here in the past.

We just assume that do not run away when you see a mathematical formula: all the basics, and the advanced methods as well, you will learn here. You get the required statistical tools and extensive hands-on training to become able to optimally analyse your data and answer the associated questions about the climate. You acquire the theoretical basis for understanding the tools and interpreting the results. You learn to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in data, climate models and statistical estimation.

Climate case studies serve to illustrate the usefulness of the tools: how to make the most of your data by means of statistics—and how to publish it in a thesis or a research paper. Examples include:

  • Trend estimation techniques for the quantification of global warming (Mudelsee 2019 Earth Science Reviews 190:310)
  • Modelled river runoff and river floods during the past decades and centuries (Mudelsee et al. 2003 Nature 425:166, St. George and Mudelsee 2019 Journal of Flood Risk Management)
  • Paleohurricane risk during the past millennium from proxy series (Besonen et al. 2008 Geophysical Research Letters 35:L14705)

The course instructor, Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, trained in physics, geology and statistics, has a long-standing expertise in teaching statistical methods to non-specialists.

What you get. The course consists of lectures and extensive hands-on training in computer tutorials. Access to the course videos is provided through a streaming host. Data, software, the lecture as PDF, the statistical tools and (optionally) an e-book version of the textbook (Mudelsee, 2014, Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp) are included in the fee. You get the link to the course slides already a few days before the start to optimally prepare yourself. During the course days, you can participate daily in an online chat on the material delivered on that day. After the course, you are offered an individual two-month feedback period where you get the exclusive chance to shown own data, tell me about the questions (the data are asking), receive support on the software and general statistical advice. We communicate by email during this period and, if needed, via a one-to-one online meeting.

Participants are strongly encouraged to bring their own data for discussion and analysis during the course. The number of participants is limited to twenty to allow in-depth individual consultation with the course holder and textbook author, Manfred Mudelsee.

You want to have a free look? Please try Module 01 Introduction (Lecture), which is in the public domain.

Past participants: country list

Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Nepal, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kindom, United States of America, Uruguay

Past participants: references

Learning from Dr. Mudelsee, an expert in his field, was of tremendous help in gaining expertise in quantitative time series analysis. The lectures provide an excellent overview on fundamental concepts of time series analysis and together with the tutorial exercises I acquired the theoretical basis for understanding and interpreting the results for my first publication. The provided software was not only useful for my project but became popular within my section. Further I was charmed by the nice venue, the wonderful food and the picturesque village of Heckenbeck.
Theresa Grunwald
Deutsches Geoforschungszentrum GFZ
Potsdam, Germany

I very much enjoyed the course, both the content and the format. It is a very intense course, with a lot of relevant information. I found the tutorials very helpful. I want to thank you for being such a good host, for taking the time to patiently explain even basic stuff, for providing a friendly and open atmosphere and, of course, for all the delicious food, snacks and drinks.
Alexandra Engstrom-Johansson
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Mainz, Germany

The course is very helpful and gives great insight into statistical methods important in paleoclimate research. I've already used some of the software to analyse my data and it has proven to be extremely useful.
Henrieka Detlef
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Cardiff University, UK


Manfred's course armed us with the theory and tools behind some of the most fundamental and useful climate data analysis techniques. It is also a respite from the fast-paced lifestyle of wherever one is coming from; Heckenbeck is picturesque throughout the seasons, making for a relaxing environment to learn the tools of the trade.
Christopher S. Kelly
Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Science
Brown University, USA

The course of Climate Time Series Analysis is of high potential for climate studies and since I am dealing with meteorological data, I think that Dr. Mudelsee's methods and tools are highly beneficial to analyse trends, climate extremes, correlation and sensitivity. As an MSc student, I was a bit afraid to attend this course but Dr. Mudelsee has very patiently and calmly explained all tools in detail, the methodologies and the formulations behind everything. This has made the course even more exciting and understandable.
Monica Sharma (India)
Masters Environmental Geoscience
TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Germany

I attended Dr. Mudelsee's Advanced Time Series Analysis course in January 2017 as a PhD student. The restricted number of participants allowed Dr. Mudelsee to tailor the course based on the individual needs of each participant, as well as creating an open atmosphere for discussion. Some of the methods taught in the course can be hard to learn out about elsewhere, unless you know precisely what you are looking for. Furthermore, the course deals with statistical pitfalls commonly encountered in the climate sciences, that you will want to know about before you submit your work for publication. I strongly recommend the Advanced Time Series Analysis course at CRA.
Karl Nyman
Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute
University of Copenhagen, Denmark

As a paleoclimate researcher, I know that it is always necessary to connect my own sets of data with time. All of these datasets will only have meaningful interpretations when linked to records associated with time-dependent series and processes. I have this thinking when I started looking for a course that can help me with my data analysis. The climate time series course analysis offered by Manfred Mudelsee is just the perfect course to take for this purpose. I also like it that the last sessions were allotted for presenting our own data in class, get some feedbacks, and analysing them on the spot with our own software choice.
Deborah Tangunan
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

For me the course was very useful. It has broadened my knowledge in the statistical methods that I used so far, and opened new avenues for my future research. Dr. Mudelsee nicely points to the important questions and to the ways of inference from statistical methods in practical problems. Additionally, it is worth to mention delicious organic homemade meals in Heckenbeck!
Ksenija Cindric Kalin
Meteorological and Hydrological Service
Zagreb, Croatia

I therefore think that attending such a course is of high interest to paleoclimate researchers, especially those who are looking for climate mechanisms, feedbacks and lead and lags of different climatic components. However, I would advise to have beforehand all the statistical and mathematical concepts readily 'charged' and fresh in your brain. Therefore one doesn't loose too much time trying to remember what's variance, how is the Pearson's coefficient calculated, what t-Student stands for or even what characterizes a Gaussian curve. Finally, it was a privilege to work and receive advice from Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, to focus on my and participate on other colleagues problem solving and always in a very comfortable, familiar and cozy environment.
Catarina Dinis Cavaleiro
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

Registration

  • Twenty participants maximum: first come, first serve
  • Deadline for registration: 3 September 2021
  • Information requested: name, email, academic title(s), affiliation(s) and professional status(es), research field(s), computer operating system(s), course chat name and your preferred hours and timezone for the course chat; please also indicate whether you wish own data to be analysed during the course or during the post-course feedback period; finally, please attach a short CV including list of recent papers, abstracts and links since this helps to better prepare for your needs — please put all this into the registration form (PDF)
  • Send information (completed registration form) by email to the address onlinecourse@climate-risk-analysis.com
  • After receiving your registration email, an official payment request is sent to you electronically, which you kindly let your institution pay; this payment completes the registration.

Included in registration fee

  • Course lecture and tutorial as module videos (about 15 hours in total, streamed, protected online access):
    • Day 1 (13 September 2021): Module 01 Introduction (Lecture)
    • Day 1 (13 Sep): Module 02 Introduction (Tutorial)
    • Day 2 (14 Sep): Module 03 Persistence Models (Lecture)
    • Day 2 (14 Sep): Module 04 Persistence Models (Tutorial)
    • Day 3 (15 Sep): Module 05 Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (Lecture)
    • Day 4 (16 Sep): Module 06 Regression I (Lecture)
    • Day 4 (16 Sep): Module 07 Regression I (Tutorial)
    • Day 5 (17 Sep): Module 08 Spectral Analysis (Lecture)
    • Day 5 (17 Sep): Module 09 Spectral Analysis (Tutorial)
    • Day 6 (20 Sep): Module 10 Extreme Value Time Series (Lecture)
    • Day 6 (20 Sep): Module 11 Extreme Value Time Series (Tutorial)
    • Day 7 (21 Sep): Module 12 Correlation (Lecture)
    • Day 7 (21 Sep): Module 13 Correlation (Tutorial)
    • Day 8 (22 Sep): Module 14 Regression II (Lecture)
    • Day 9 (23 Sep): Module 15 Future Directions (Lecture)
  • Daily chat during course days on modules from that day (hours and timezone to be determined from the full set of completed registrations)
  • Course slides (about 390 pages, PDF, downloadable, protected online access)
  • Data, software (Windows executables and selected Fortran source codes) and reading material (downloadable, protected online access)
  • Caliza™ 3.0 software, full version is included in software
  • Two months individual post-course feedback period, software support and general statistical advice
  • Optional: Textbook Mudelsee 2014 Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp. (e-book version)

Registration fee (net price, excluding 19% VAT)

  • Without e-book: 1100 EUR
  • With e-book: 1200 EUR

Organizer

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany (CRA)
  • Contact person: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, phone +49 5563 9998140

Technicalities

  • Language: English (during the individual post-course feedback period, German is also possible)
  • Computer: essential for doing the tutorial, please note that you should have administrator rights to be able to install software
  • Laptop operating system: Windows preferable but not mandatory, Linux also works
  • Mac users: prior to the start of the course, install a Windows emulator (see, e.g., Oracle VM, https://www.oracle.com/virtualization/technologies/vm; Wine, https://www.winehq.org; Homebrew, http://brew.sh; or Xcode, https://developer.apple.com); if uncertain, please do consult someone from the computing department of your institution
  • Computing environment: the course accomodates virtually all you bring (Matlab, Python, R, S-Plus, etc.)
  • Data: you are very welcome to bring your own data for analysis! Data format: ASCII (more details in our confirmation email)
  • Reading material: a few topical papers are provided

Certificate

  • Detailed list of taught topics
  • Signed, scanned, and emailed to you
  • Provided at the end of the two-month post-course feedback period

Milestones

     
#1 Deadline for registration Fri 3 Sep 2021
#2 Confirmation email: details on received registration and payment; course chat hours and timezone Sat 4 Sep 2021
#3 Welcome email: access to the full course material (links, passwords), advice for home preparation Thur 9 Sep 2021
#4 Invoice email: signed and scanned invoice sent to each participant Thur 9 Sep 2021
#5 Start of course Mon 13 Sep 2021
#6 End of course Thur 23 Sep 2021
#7 Course certificates email: signed and scanned document sent to each participant Fri 1 Oct 2021
#8 End of two-months individual post-course feedback period Fri 26 Nov 2021

A very warm welcome!